GuruFocus Speech - Given on May 3, 2019 in Omaha, NE
Steven Kiel spoke at the annual GuruFocus Value Conference in Omaha, NE on May 3, 2019. View the transcript here.
The price of a stock is based on perception. Sometimes that perception is right. Sometimes it isn’t. Our job is to attempt to determine what reality is. If reality is different than the perception, then we have an opportunity to profit.
This is the fundamental question of investing: Is our perception correct?”
We could spend years listing and discussing biases, and it may not make any difference unless we implement effective tools. In fact, some studies have even shown that the more you know about a particular bias, the more prone you are to be affected by it. The mind plays dirty tricks on us because as we gain more knowledge, we become more susceptible to overconfidence.
Consider it the hedonistic treadmill of confidence.